As we end the 25/26 harvesting, the dynamics of coffee pricing are once again in the spotlight and nowhere is this more evident than in Brazil.
Today, Brazilian producers take a high percentage of exports value compared to other coffee origins, typically between 70% and 90%. This shift represents an overdue correction in value distribution but also brings new challenges to the entire supply chain.
It’s fair that producers earn more. Producing high-quality coffee has become increasingly complex and risky. Climate change, rising production costs, and stricter regulations make every harvest harder to manage. However, this new reality also puts immense pressure on intermediaries: exporters and importers who operate with small margins.
Specialty roasters don’t always respond to price increases in the same way as commercial roasters do, as they were not used to following the NY market prices changes constantly. So paradoxically, in some cases, commercial roasters are willing to pay more for the same coffees. This inversion has made long-term relationships harder to maintain, as everyone in the chain faces different pressures and expectations. Producers may choose to sell their coffees for commercial roasters for more value instead of keeping old relationships in the specialty industry afloat.
It’s understandable that producers want to take advantage of high market prices as many of us would do the same in that position. But there is a risk: if the market eventually falls, the only buyers still willing to pay premiums may be the specialty roasters. Maintaining strong, balanced relationships in these times will be critical for everyone’s sustainability. Coffee relationships are and must remain a two-sided commitment.
For too long, coffee prices were artificially low. Governments encouraged overproduction, deforestation expanded farmland, and stable climates helped sustain high yields for years. Those days are over.
Now, climate change, environmental regulations, and shifting market forces have created a permanent transformation. Productivity is increasingly difficult to maintain. Brazil’s ban on deforestation, in place for decades has restricted the expansion of coffee land as global demand increased. Areas once ideal for coffee cultivation are also no longer viable for production.
Meanwhile, hedge funds and speculative investors, with no direct link to the physical coffee trade, create extreme daily volatility in the New York market. Demand continues to rise, yet the conditions for growing coffee are tougher than ever.
A Structural Change in Power
This is the new coffee economy. Denying it won’t make it go away it will only delay the necessary adjustments in our business models. We are entering a phase of consistently higher coffee prices, and with that, the traditional (sometimes colonial) narrative of “supporting farmers” begins to lose its relevance.
In many ways, the world is correcting itself. Farmers now hold more decision-making power and receive a higher percentage of income for their work not importers, exporters, or roasters. Was that what the industry had been advocating for all along?
So perhaps the question we should ask ourselves is: are we truly ready for a fair supply chain?
It’s important to clarify that this situation reflects Brazil’s specific context, where price transparency and producer empowerment are more advanced. In other origins, many challenges remain particularly around transparency and equitable value distribution, and these deserve attention and discussion.
Written by: Bruna Costa
